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RollerCoaster Tycoon 3: Complete Edition arrives on both Switch and PC on September 24. The complete edition comes with the Soaked! and Wild! expansion packs, so you’re good to go on all the bonus content to make some ripping rides.
The draw on Switch is clearly to build the ultimate coaster anywhere, anytime, but PC players get the bonus of having widescreen mode and 1080p. Take a peek at a new trailer showcasing the roaring roller coaster ride below!
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This post is meant to be an addition to what I said earlier this year. Here we compare, in the same historical period of existence of bitcoin, Bitcoin vs other assets: us stock market indexes, US stocks of different sectors and Gold.
Let’s start with this summary table, who follow me regularly should already know the meaning of Shannon’s probability, RMS, G yield and compounded annual G yield; for all the others I refer you to the end of the article.
The data have been sorted in descending order according to Compounded Yearly Gain G.
Comparison Bitcoin vs. The rest of the world
July 17, 2010 – Dec 31, 2019
|Asset||RMS or Volatility||Shannon Probability P||Daily Gain G||Compounded Yearly Gain G||Optimal Fraction of your capital to wage|
|Nasdaq Composite Index||0.0106||0.5179||1.00032||8%||3.6%|
|Standard & Poor’s 500 Index||0.0091||0.5160||1.00025||6%||3.2%|
|Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (W.Buffett)||0.0105||0.5112||1.00018||5%||2.2%|
*Ethereum Data since Aug 7, 2015, source coinmarketcap.
**Gold since 1970 has been a bit better with +3% yearly compounded gain.
The first comparison to make is with the main competitors of bitcoin, credit cards. I’m surprised to see how good are quantitative parameters of Mastercard and Visa, on the other hand they are monopolies, perhaps that’s why the CEO of mastercard hates so much Bitcoin, he sees it as a strong threat. Even Amazon has worse parameters compared to Visa and MC.
I included only Ethereum in the comparison because in terms of market cap is second to Bitcoin, its yearly yield G is negative and i’m not surprised because I remind you that volatility reduces by far the yield G and in the case of all altcoins, not only Ethereum, the volatility reaches very high levels and therefore as an investment vehicle altcoins in general are absolutely not recommended, can eventually be considered as purely speculative assets for short-term trading.
Unfortunately for Mr.P.Schiff, in the last ten years Gold performed badly, for your curiosity i computed Gold parameters using available daily data since January 1970 and its yearly gain G or yield has been +3%, nothing exceptional, basically Gold protected you against inflation in the last fifty years but nothing more then this.
As i said 20 days ago Bitcoin volatility is dropping but it remains very high compared to other assets, despite this Bitcoin yearly compounded gain G is an astonishing +38% and it’s the best investment vehicle of the world.
Compared to other bitcoin price models this value is not much, ten years from now compounding 38% yearly bitcoin should be at around 200k usd while, for example, the stock to flow model has a forecast of 10 millions usd after 2028 halving, this is the equivalent of 144% yearly compounded gain instead of 38%.
Let me know what you think, does the stock to flow model price return appear realistic to you or not? Personally i prefer to rely on numbers and they say a clear “no” to me. This is why i’m a bit skeptic about also the bitcoin price model i developed on tradingview but i’m curious to see how it’ll end in a couple of years.
The concept of entropic analysis of equity prices is old and it was first proposed by Louis Bachelier in his “theory of speculation”, this thesis anticipated many of the mathematical discoveries made later by Wiener and Markov underlying the importance of these ideas in today’s financial markets. Then in the mid 1940’s we have had the information theory developed by Claude Shannon , theory that is applicable to the analysis and optimization of speculative endeavors and it is exactly what i’ve done just applied to bitcoin and the other assets considered in the above table, especially using the Shannon Probability or entropy that in terms of information theory, entropy is considered to be a measure of the uncertainty in a message.
To put it intuitively, suppose , at this probability, the event is certain never to occur, and so there is no uncertainty at all, leading to an entropy of 0; at the same time if the result is again certain, so the entropy is 0 here as well. When or 0.50 the uncertainty is at a maximum or basically there is no information and only noise.
Applying this entropy concept to an equity like a stock or a commodity or even bitcoin itself common values for P are 0.52 that can be interpreted as a slightly persistence or tendency to go up, this means that for example stock markets aren’t totally random and up to some extend they are exploitable, same for btc.
Knowing the entropy level of bitcoin/usd is crucial if we want to compute its main quantitative characteristics, as i explained in the technical background of my blog this process is quickly doable once you have all the formulas, the process is as follows:
To compute the Shannon Probability P you should follow these steps:
- compute natural logarithm of data increments (today price / yesterday price)
- compute the mean for all data increment computed in step 1
- compute RMS (root mean square) of all data increments, squaring each data increment and sum all togheter
- Compute price momentum probability with the formula P = (((avg / rms) – (1 / sqrt (n))) + 1) / 2
where avg = data computed in step 2, rms = data computed in step 3, n = total samples of your dataset. If the resulting probability is above 0.5 then there is positive momentum, otherwise under 0.5 negative momentum
To compute the Gain Factor G use the following formula:
|G = ((1+RMS)^P*((1-RMS)^(1-P))|
To compute the yearly gain G or growth just raise daily gain G to the 365th power for Bitcon or 252 for stocks (252 trading days in a year).
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Extra Crunch Friday roundup: Edtech funding surges, Poland VC survey, inside Shift’s SPAC plan, more
I live in San Francisco, but I work an East Coast schedule to get a jump on the news day. So I’d already been at my desk for a couple of hours on Wednesday morning when I looked up and saw this:
What color is the sky this morning pic.twitter.com/nt5dZp5wWc
— Walter Thompson (@YourProtagonist) September 9, 2020
As unsettling as it was to see the natural environment so transformed, I still got my work done. This is not to boast: I have a desk job and a working air filter. (People who make deliveries in the toxic air or are homeschooling their children while working from home during a global pandemic, however, impress the hell out of me.)
Not coincidentally, two of the Extra Crunch stories that ran since our Tuesday newsletter tie directly into what’s going on outside my window:
As this guest post predicted, a suboptimal attempt I made to track a delayed package using interactive voice response (IVR) indeed poisoned my customer experience, and;
Sheltering in place to avoid the novel coronavirus — and wildfire smoke — is fueling growth in the video-game industry, perhaps one factor in Unity Software Inc.’s plan to go public ahead of competitor Epic Games. In a two-part series, we looked at how the company has expanded beyond games and shared a detailed financial breakdown.
We covered a lot of ground this week, so scroll down or visit the recently redesigned Extra Crunch home page. If you’d like to receive this roundup via email each Tuesday and Friday, please click here.
Thanks very much for reading Extra Crunch; I hope you have a relaxing and safe weekend.
In a two-part series that ran on TechCrunch and Extra Crunch, former media columnist Eric Peckham returned to share his analysis of Unity Software Inc.’s S-1 filing.
Part one is a deep dive that explains how the company has grown beyond gaming to develop multiple revenue streams and where it’s headed.
For part two on Extra Crunch, he studied the company’s numbers to offer some context for its approximately $11 billion valuation.
As we’ve covered previously, the COVID-19 pandemic is making the world a lot smaller.
Investors who focus on their own backyards still have an advantage, but the ability to set up a quick coffee meeting with a promising investor is no longer one of them.
Even though some VCs are cutting first checks after Zoom calls, regional investors’ personal networks are still a trump card. Tourists will always rely on guide books, however, which is why we continue to survey investors around the world.
A Dealroom report issued this summer determined that 97 VC funds backed more than 1,600 funding rounds in Poland last year. With over 2,400 early- and late-stage startups and 400,000 engineers in the country, it’s easy to see why foreign investors are taking notice.
Editor-at-large Mike Butcher reached out to several investors who focus on Warsaw and Poland in general to learn more about the startups fueling their interest across fintech, gaming, security and other sectors:
- Bryony Cooper, managing partner, Arkley Brinc VC
- Anna Wnuk-Błażejczyk, investor relations manager, Experior.vc
- Rafał Roszak, investment director, YouNick Mint
- Michal Mroczkowski, partner, Market One Capital
- Marcus Erken, partner, Sunfish Partners
- Borys Musielak, partner, SMOK Ventures
- Mathias Åsberg, partner, Nextgrid
- Kuba Dudek, SpeedUp Venture Capital Group
- Marcin Laczynski, partner, Next Road Ventures
- Michał Rokosz, partner, Inovo Venture Partners
We’ll run the conclusion of his survey next Tuesday.
Even for fledgling startups, creating a robust customer service channel — or at least one that doesn’t annoy people — is a reliable way to keep users in the sales funnel.
Using AI and automation is fine, but now that consumers have grown used to asking phones and smart speakers to predict the weather and read recipe instructions, their expectations are higher than ever.
If you’re trying to figure out what people want from hyper-personalized customer experiences and how you can operationalize AI to give them what they’re after, start here.
For today’s edition of The Exchange, Natasha Mascarenhas joined Alex Wilhelm to examine how the pandemic-fueled surge of interest in edtech is manifesting on the funding front.
The numbers suggest that funding will far surpass the sector’s high-water mark set in 2018, so the duo studied the numbers through August 31, which included a number of mega-rounds that exceeded $100 million.
“Now the challenge for the sector will be keeping its growth alive in 2021, showing investors that their 2020 bets were not merely wagers made during a single, overheated year,” they conclude.
The odds are low that someone’s going to enter my home and steal my belongings. I still lock my door when I leave the house, however, and my valuables are insured. I’m an optimist, not a fool.
Similarly: Is your startup’s cybersecurity strategy based on optimism, or do you have an actual response plan in case of a data breach?
Security reporter Zack Whittaker has seen some shambolic reactions to security lapses, which is why he turned in a post-mortem about a corporation that got it right.
“Once in a while, a company’s response almost makes up for the daily deluge of hypocrisy, obfuscation and downright lies,” says Zack.
There’s a lot of buzz about special purpose acquisition companies these days.
Used-car marketplace Shift announced its SPAC in June 2020, and is on track to complete the process in the next few months, so co-founder/co-CEO George Arison wrote an Extra Crunch guest post to share what he has learned.
Step one: “If you go the SPAC route, you’ll need to become an expert at financial engineering.”
I am a software engineer and have been looking at job postings in the U.S. I’ve heard from my friends about J-1 Visa Training or J-1 Research.
What is a J-1 status? What are the requirements to qualify? Do I need to find a U.S. employer willing to sponsor me before I apply for one? Can I get a visa? How long could I stay?
— Determined in Delhi
While we count down to the September 23 premiere of NYSE: PLTR, Danny Crichton looked at the “robust secondary market” that has allowed some investors to acquire shares early.
“Given the number of people involved and the number of shares bought and sold over the past 18 months, we can get some insight regarding how insiders perceive Palantir’s value,” he writes.
Zack Whittaker interviewed Bugcrowd CTO, founder and chairman Casey Ellis about the best practices he recommends for creating a startup culture that takes security seriously.
“It’s an everyone problem,” said Ellis, who encouraged founders to promote the notion of “productive paranoia.”
Now that the threat envelope includes everyone from marketing to engineering, employees need to “internalize the fact that bad stuff can and does happen if you do it wrong,” Ellis said.
World of Warcraft
Remedy has offered new details about the upcoming AWE expansion in its latest livestream, but one of the coolest announcements to emerge from that video on the status of the game is what is coming in the free August update. Remedy revealed that it’s responding to complaints about long checkpoints and difficulty overall with a number of new options.
The game is adding new control points as well as soft checkpoints in certain areas.
In addition, a new “Assist Mode” provides tremendous flexibility for players to cater the game to their desires, changing out damage input and output amounts, reload and recharge speeds, and even turning off character death entirely.
Many players at launch found Control’s difficulty to be uneven, so this new addition from Remedy should come as welcome news.
The free update is due out this month.